WHAT’S Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation About the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started investing in bitcoins and I’ve heard a great deal of discusses inflation and deflation but not many people actually know and consider what inflation and deflation are. But let’s focus on inflation.

We always needed ways to trade value and the most practical way to do it would be to link it with money. In the past it worked quite well because the money that was issued was linked to gold. So every central bank had to have enough gold to cover back all the money it issued. However, in past times century this changed and gold isn’t what’s giving value to money but promises. Since you can guess it’s very an easy task to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks aren’t renouncing to do so. For this reason they are printing money, so put simply they’re “creating wealth” out of nothing without really having it. This process not only exposes us to risks of economic collapse but it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money is worth less, whoever is selling something must raise the price of goods to reflect their real value, this is called inflation. But what’s behind the money printing? Why are central banks doing this? Well the answer they might offer you is that by de-valuing their currency they are helping the exports.

In fairness, in our global economy this is true. However, that’s not the only real reason. By issuing Bitcoin Revolution are able to afford to pay back the debts we had, quite simply we make new debts to cover the old ones. But that is not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we have been de-facto de-valuing our debts. That’s why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s better to grow because debts are cheap. But what are the consequences of all this? It’s hard to store wealth. If you keep carefully the money (you worked hard to get) in your money you’re actually losing wealth because your cash is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank has an inflation target at around 2% we are able to well say that keeping money costs most of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, based on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is exactly the opposite of inflation and it is the biggest nightmare for the central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we’ve deflation when overall the costs of goods fall. This would be caused by a rise of value of money. Firstly, it would hurt spending as consumers will undoubtedly be incentivised to save money because their value increase overtime. Alternatively merchants will undoubtedly be under constant pressure. They will have to sell their goods quick otherwise they’ll lose money because the price they will charge for his or her services will drop as time passes. But if there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments usually do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt will become a real burden as it will only get bigger over time. Because our economies derive from debt you can imagine exactly what will be the consequences of deflation.

So in summary, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Which means future generations can pay our debts. Deflation alternatively makes growth harder nonetheless it means that future generations won’t have much debt to pay (in such context it might be possible to afford slow growth).

OK so how all this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are made to be an alternative for money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They are limited in number and we will never have a lot more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they’re designed to be deflationary. Now we have all seen what the consequences of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it would still be possible for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from the debt-based economy to a share-based economy. In fact, because contracting debts in bitcoins would be very expensive business can still obtain the capital they want by issuing shares of their company. This could be an interesting alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, simply for clarity, I have to say that area of the costs of borrowing capital will be reduced under bitcoins because the fees will be extremely low and there won’t be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This might buffer some of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to pay back the huge debts that people inherited from days gone by generations.